January 10, 2023 from Steve Kirsch's newsletter
If I Had a Million Dollars ... | Sojourners

I’m tired of hearing doctors say that the evidence clearly shows that the COVID vaccine benefits outweigh the risks in the US.

This is simply not true. It’s not even a close call.

I’m willing to bet anyone $1M that I’m right.

Do any of the pro-vax doctors in America actually believe their own advice? Or is it all “Big hat, no cattle?”

I believe a human life is worth more than $1M. So how can doctors risk their patients’ lives when they clearly are not very confident at all that their own beliefs are correct?

My $500K bet with Saar Wilf

I’m about to enter into a $500K bet with Saar Wilf. He might raise his wager to $1M after the judges are selected.

We started negotiating the terms of the bet on Nov 17, 2022, and now we’re basically done with the term sheet. There were some points where I thought the negotiation would fall apart (around December 23), but I’m pleased to report that we’ve overcome all the issues and it’s been smooth sailing since then. There are a couple of minor details regarding the judges we’ll need to work out after the judges are selected and then we are good to go.

It’s a very fair term sheet where neither side has an advantage and the judging panel is completely neutral. This wasn’t easy to work out, but I think the result is a model that can be applied to resolve the answer to future questions of public interest. Heck, it may end up being our most important contribution to the world, you never know!

Why is everyone afraid to challenge me?

So we now have a situation where not a single person in the entire world is willing to bet me $1M that the COVID vaccines were a beneficial intervention. Not even the drug companies.

Saar may be the first and only person to hit the $1M threshold, but he hasn’t yet.

So the question remains:

If the vax is so safe, why isn’t anyone confident enough in their beliefs to actually back their statement by putting their (or someone else’s) capital at risk?

In other words, why isn’t anyone willing to put their money where their mouth is?

People can no longer use the “excuse” that I’m not serious about the bet, don’t have the money, or that I won’t negotiate in good faith. This term sheet is proof I’m serious.

Nor can anyone use the excuse that they don’t have the money. Pfizer or Moderna should be happy to sponsor a qualified challenger and put up the money. $1M is peanuts to them. And since the vaccine is so safe, it’s a sure thing; a no risk bet! And they’ll decrease vaccine hesitancy which means they’ll sell more products. If they really believe their product is effective, there is simply no reason they wouldn’t put up the capital.

Where is Bill Gates?

Why isn’t Bill Gates taking me up on my bet? He’s been promoting the deadly COVID shots since the beginning. Why isn’t he willing to put his money where his mouth is? Not worth his time? OK, he could easily find someone to challenge me.

Here’s why nobody will take my bet

But they will never do it, because they know they will lose. It’s that simple.

The excuse they will use for not taking my bet

I know what they will say when asked why they don’t accept my bet.

They will say, “Science is not settled by bets; it is settled in the peer reviewed literature.”

WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

They would argue that the peer-reviewed literature says that vaccines are beneficial. It’s settled.

Oh Really?!?!

Where is the randomized controlled trial that actually looks at the all-cause mortality and assesses correctly whether a participant died from the vaccine? It doesn’t exist.

So if we want to settle this issue decisively ASAP to the best of our ability, we need to present the evidence to an unbiased scientific panel and ensure that the presenters on both sides are highly motivated to make the best possible case for that panel. And that is precisely what this bet will accomplish.

If I changed the subject of the bet, I’d be inundated with offers

If I offered to bet $1M the moon is made of swiss cheese, do you think I’d have any problems getting people to accept my bet? Of course not!

So let’s be real folks: the real reason they aren’t taking my bet is they know they would lose.

My motivation in making the challenge

I’m not doing it for the money. I’m doing it because when it is all over, all confidence in the vaccine will collapse with a decisive loss, which I predict is almost certain if anyone accepts my bet.

The US government believes that censorship is the best way to deal with scientific dissent. I disagree. That hasn’t worked. It’s made things worse as I clearly pointed out in my Open Letter to CDC Director Walensky.

I think these questions are best handled through discourse. Call me old fashioned. The $1M at risk ensures that the discourse will be very serious.

My claim that I will win is not hubris. It is because the evidence supports my position.

Before I made the bet with Saar, I asked UK Professor Norman Fenton what he thought. He put the probability at “over 99%” when I asked him about evidentiary support for my claim that the vaccines increased net all-cause mortality. That’s a good start.

And then I checked with many other people who have no conflicts of interest and who study the data closely and seek the truth. Same answer.

And I also tried to find anyone who could explain to me how VAERS can have 15,000 excess American deaths if those deaths are not caused by the COVID vaccines. Nobody had an explanation that fit the data. NOBODY.

NOBODY IN THE ENTIRE WORLD can explain that one critically important data point.

Now consider that there are hundreds of data points like that one that nobody can explain.

Isn’t it funny how the VAERS data (due to it being underreported) is often used to show people that there is not a safety problem with vaccines, but when VAERS throws an unprecedented number of safety signals, the VAERS system suddenly is considered by the “experts” to be “unreliable?”

NOBODY can explain how the CDC detected 770 safety signals on this vaccine if it is as safe as claimed.

NOBODY could explain to me how it is ethical for the Israeli Ministry of Health to completely ignore the adverse safety data from these shots and defund the safety research program so they wouldn’t collect any safety data. When I bring this topic up with doctors, they never answer and instantly change the subject. I did this several times in Twitter Spaces today and every single time all the doctors avoided answering a simple yes/no question and deflected.

NOBODY could explain why ACIP Chair Grace Lee refuses to see the safety data from the Israeli Ministry of Health. Professor Martin Kulldorff had the best answer when I asked him. He said, “I don’t know.”

So we are down to the real reason that nobody will take my bet: because the data is so crystal clear that the COVID vaccines killed more people than they saved in the US.

If the data actually supported the false government narrative, I would be inundated with bet requests. But all I hear is crickets and excuses.

An interesting asymmetry… have you noticed?

If I win the bet, no mainstream media will cover my win.

If I lose the bet, it will be covered in every mainstream media source in the world.

Because that is how the news works today, isn’t it?

Who wants to be a millionaire?

If you want to challenge me, here is the term sheet and you can indicate your willingness to accept this term sheet (subject to changing the parties and the amount to $1M) by making your legally binding offer here, just like Saar did.

Or make your own custom offer if you don’t like the one we crafted.

I’m always open to better ways to settle important scientific disagreements in a fair and balanced way.

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https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/im-willing-to-bet-anyone-in-the-world
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